Civil aviation market in the world. World market for civil aircraft. 1st place: French company Thales

Continuation. Beginning in No. 5-2009

3. New regional aircraft projects

Chinese regional aircraft ARJ21

The Chinese-developed ARJ21-700 regional passenger aircraft made its first flight in November 2008. Its flight tests began in April 2009. The ARJ21-700 turbofan passenger aircraft is designed for short and medium-haul airlines. This aircraft is designed to carry 70–110 passengers over a range of up to 3,700 km (the basic model of the aircraft is designed to carry 90 passengers over a range of 2,225 km). Its cost ranges from $27 million to $29 million. The first batches of aircraft are planned to be delivered to customers in 2010. It is also planned to create a cargo version of the aircraft with a maximum payload of about 10 tons.

ARJ21 is the first by Chinese airliner for domestic and foreign markets passenger transportation, created in accordance with international standards and with the participation of specialists from other countries. Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers from ASTC im. OK. Antonov. When building the aircraft, the Chinese used components from Western manufacturers, for example, Rockwell Collins was chosen as the avionics supplier, and General Electric power plant. This means that Chinese aircraft manufacturers followed the traditional path of introducing existing world achievements, while simultaneously adopting design experience. The developers say the aircraft has an estimated operational life of 20 years, and production is estimated at about 500 units - 350 for the Chinese domestic market and 150 for overseas carriers.

Japanese regional jet MRJ

The MRJ (Mitsubishi Regional Jet) aircraft is designed as a regional passenger airliner class 70–90 passenger seats. Its developers are the corporations Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fudzy Heavy Industries, together with the Japan Aircraft Development Association and the Toyota concern (the latter intends to invest 10 billion Japanese yen - about $100 million) in the project. The total development cost is about 120 billion yen (approximately $1 billion). Two modifications of the aircraft are being developed - for 70–80 and 86–96 passenger seats. The aircraft's flight range should be from 1600 to 3900 km. The American company Pratt&Whittney (P&W) will develop the engine. Received pre-orders for 100 aircraft, and, in addition to Japanese airlines JAL and ANA, foreign air carriers began to show attention to the new aircraft.

The new aircraft should take off in 2012 and appear on the market in early 2013. The first aircraft in the 90-seat configuration (MRJ90) will be received by the launch customer - the Japanese All Nippon Airways. The second largest Japanese carrier has ordered 15 units. 90-seater aircraft with an option for another 10 aircraft. The cost of the base MRJ90 is estimated at $38 million. In total, Mitsubishi expects to sell from 300 to 500 MRJ aircraft. The possibility of creating an “extended” version with 115 seats is also being considered.

New Bombardier projects

According to the forecast of the Canadian company Bombardier, in the next 20 years the world's airlines will need 6,300 units of 100-149-seat aircraft with a total value of over $250 billion. The company's goal is to get half of this market. In 2008, Bombardier announced the start of a production program for a family of new CSeries aircraft with a typical 5-abreast seating arrangement. The aircraft development program began in 2004, the entry into service of the aircraft is scheduled for 2013. The designation of the new aircraft in this series is CS100 and CS300 with a capacity of 110-115 and 122-145 passengers, respectively. The aircraft's flight range is about 3000 km. There are modifications CS100ER and CS300ER with a flight range increased to 5000 km. The price of the aircraft is about $51 million.

The new planes will have to emit less carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides than existing regional jets (up to 20 and 50% respectively) and will be four times less noisy. It is also expected to reduce fuel consumption and operating costs by 20% and 15%, respectively. Thus, with maximum passenger cabin density, CSeries aircraft will consume only two liters of fuel to transport one passenger per 100 km.

Bombardier continues to market its new generation of CRJ NG (Next Generation) regional aircraft. The company offered carriers a lightweight version of the CRJ-1000 EuroLite (EL) aircraft with 100 seats. Compared to the base aircraft, the new aircraft is 1.8 tons lighter. The new version is designed to minimize costs for European operators who require a short-haul aircraft. The CRJ aircraft project was launched in 2007 and the aircraft made its first flight in 2008. Commissioning is planned for 2010. It is planned to develop a variant of the CRJ-1000ER with a flight range increased to 3130 km.

New projects from Embraer

The latest project of the Brazilian company Embraer is the E-195 regional aircraft, which entered service in 2006. It differs from its predecessors E-190/175/170 by the increased number of passenger seats to 106–122 and a flight range of 3990 km for the 195 LR version .

Embraer intends, like Bombardier, to continue to increase the number of seats in regional aircraft and already in 2011 to cross the 120-seat bar and move on. The next family of regional aircraft is expected to appear closer to 2020, after which they will be able to truly compete with the A320 and B737 aircraft.

Conclusions: in the global civil aircraft market there is a fairly tough and uncompromising struggle called competition. The market itself is divided quite clearly: in the field of long-haul aircraft, it is dominated by Boeing and Airbus corporations, which are unlikely to allow other players into it. Those seeking to occupy some small niche on it are directed to letters of recommendation from first persons with a strong recommendation to purchase Western aircraft, and first try yourself at a smaller level. Such a recommendation was also given to Russia several years ago, after which we concentrated on the projects of regional SSJ 100 and An-148, as well as the short-medium-haul aircraft MC21.

In the regional aircraft market, we will be forced to compete primarily with Embraer and Bombardier, which will soon be joined by Chinese and Japanese manufacturers. Quite a lot of material has already been published in the press regarding the projects of the SSJ 100, An-148 and MC-21 aircraft. The developers still do not always meet the promised deadlines, but they are trying to guarantee a sufficiently high technical level of the aircraft. However, there is still some feeling of disappointment: why did our developers choose a capacity of 75–130 seats for the SSJ 100 aircraft, when foreign manufacturers have long been planning to produce much more capacious regional aircraft (up to 149 seats). This is due to the fact that on the international market the demand for aircraft with a capacity of up to 100 seats has long fallen. Why produce obviously unprofitable aircraft? Perhaps a compromise will still be found when Russia and Ukraine can reasonably divide this capacity range between themselves, leaving the Ukrainian An-148 aircraft a niche of 70–88 seats, and the Superjet a niche of 100–130 seats.

A competitor for our promising MS-21 aircraft is also planned. As the line between regional and short-to-medium-haul aircraft gradually blurs, Boeing and Airbus corporations usually create a line of aircraft models of varying capacities at once. Several years ago, the B737-600 aircraft (110 passenger seats) lost in a tender to the Brazilian Embraer aircraft 190/195 (114–122 places). However, after 2015–2018. Boeing Corporation will already be freed from the problems of creating the B787 aircraft and, in order not to lose the market, intends to create a new aircraft to replace the B737 aircraft. At the same time, Boeing plans to develop two models of the aircraft: one with 110–130 seats, the other with greater capacity. Airbus Corporation is also preparing its project in this class of aircraft.

But there is another option for the development of events. As has already happened in the class of long-haul aircraft, Russia may be offered to participate in the development of these projects together with Boeing or Airbus. What then? Will we really agree again and help design, blow, cast titanium blanks for individual components, etc.? Or maybe this will help us gain the necessary experience to further revive our aviation industry and enter the international aviation market? It is this path that China is now trying to master.

We really have a lot to learn from the world's leading airlines, which have enormous experience in conquering the market. Here are just a few features that characterize the work and reasons for the success of Boeing and Airbus corporations:
International organizational structure of the corporation.
Mandatory international cooperation in the development and construction of aircraft, making it possible to share economic risks and ensure guaranteed mutual access of project participants to markets.
Availability of a stable team of highly qualified workers.
The presence of a line of modern aircraft, while in this line a certain sequence of technological innovations is usually observed.
High technical level of aircraft (performance characteristics, reliability, safety, comfort, design and cabin equipment).
Compliance of aircraft with international environmental requirements (noise level, environmental pollution).
Multi-stage crew and technical training system. personnel (usually for a family of aircraft of the same type, allowing pilots to move from one aircraft to another without retraining).
Providing aircraft maintenance worldwide.

We have already lost much of what is listed here and we need to recreate it anew, and this requires both time and considerable funds. The coming years will show whether we are ready for a new breakthrough or not.

Russian aircraft and helicopter manufacturers today face new challenges. They will have to integrate more actively into the global market, quickly introduce new technologies and, if necessary, exchange qualified personnel.

These and other steps are contained in the draft updated Aviation Industry Strategy until 2030. In addition, the document includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. “We are in favor of actively attracting private capital to the industry,” explained Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.

Benefits are not canceled

For industry participants, existing state support measures will remain and even expand. “We will encourage our airlines to purchase a fleet of Russian-made aircraft,” Denis Manturov clarified.

According to him, a new generation of suppliers must emerge, working to the most stringent standards, in demand not only in the domestic but also in the world market. “Aviation industry corporations are already working in this direction,” the minister clarified.

As before, the state is relying on aviation science and ensuring the technological sovereignty of the country. “As a result, we expect to build an economically stable, globally competitive industry, integrated into the international division of labor,” Manturov concluded.

The supplier is small but smart

A new generation of suppliers, including small and medium-sized businesses, will work not only for the aviation industry, but also for related industries - automotive, space, shipbuilding, transport engineering and others.

Today, all of the world's largest aircraft and helicopter manufacturers work with a variety of large and small component manufacturers, concentrating on the best product development, quality workmanship and impeccable after-sales service.

In Russia, the outdated industrial model of “full cycle” enterprises is still used - from casting to assembly of final products. IN modern world There are almost no such enterprises left - it is unprofitable.

The world welcomes broad cooperation and division of labor, the authors of the document state. According to Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, the strategy directly points to the key features of the “domestic aircraft industry” and proposes ways to solve them in line with trends in the global aviation industry. This means that the emphasis must be placed on the independent development of so-called critical technologies that ensure competitiveness, on inclusion in international cooperation and division of labor.

Digital Factory

The most pressing problem for Russian aircraft manufacturers is the cramped domestic market and the closed nature of many foreign markets.

“The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) plans to produce about 35 SSJ100 aircraft per year in the near future. The capabilities allow us to double production and ensure production profitability due to the scale of the business. But aircraft in such quantities are not required within the country. Our passengers do not earn that much and they don’t fly as often as Europeans or Americans,” Oleg Panteleev explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. That is why it is extremely important for Russian aircraft manufacturers to gain access to the international market.

“A breakthrough into the Asian markets can be ensured by the implementation of the joint Russian-Chinese project of a wide-body long-range aircraft (WLDMS),” believes Oleg Panteleev.

The development of military aircraft exports will be facilitated by the successful combat use of attack aircraft in Syria.

“It is important to understand what will be in demand in other countries. We are relying on new types of aircraft. These are SSJ100, MC21, Ka62, Mi38, Ansat,” the ministry explains.

Let us remind you that the SSJ100 is a regional passenger aircraft created in close international cooperation, the Ansat is a modern helicopter for wide use for civil and special purposes. Ka62 and Mi38 are multi-purpose helicopters, MC21 is a short-medium-haul aircraft.

The aviation industry now has more than 250 industrial enterprises and over 400 thousand employees

The updated Aviation Industry Strategy places emphasis on enhanced scientific and technical development of the industry. Despite the implementation of promising projects in recent years, Russia has accumulated a gap with industry leaders, especially in the civilian segment. Many key technologies in the Russian aviation industry were developed back in the 1980s. And now in the global market, the requirements for future aircraft are related to digital technologies and innovations.

For example, Airbus is introducing a “digital factory” into production - an innovation that will increase productivity and reduce logistics and energy costs by 30%. Boeing and Airbus are beginning to use a 3D printing method that increases the strength of products by five times and reduces raw material costs by 90 percent. The development of after-sales service is also important: with the help of new developments in the world, the speed of service provision is increasing.

The projects that will turn the situation around could be the MC21 and the Russian-Chinese aircraft ShFDMS, the Ministry of Industry and Trade expects.

Let's fly into the alliance

What methods of integration into the global aviation industry are offered? In addition to export government support measures, there is close cooperation with countries developing their own aviation industry.

"For example, China does not have sufficient experience in the design of civil wide-body aircraft and aircraft engines. India does not have its own developments in fifth-generation fighter aircraft, civil regional aircraft, narrow- and wide-body aircraft. The Russian aviation industry has competencies and technologies in these areas and can be a reliable partner for these countries,” the Ministry of Industry and Trade explains.

In addition, they plan to build international alliances according to the “competence in exchange for market” scheme (for example, with China and India). Moreover, the possibility of creating joint ventures with developing countries to develop, produce and promote aircraft is being considered.

In projects with international participation with high-tech countries, Russia aims to cooperate with France, Germany, the USA, Great Britain, and Japan. “The creation of conditions for international cooperation will be achieved, among other things, through political support from the state, in particular, at the level of intergovernmental agreements,” the Strategy says.

When purchasing foreign aircraft, industry participants, together with the state, will look for opportunities to meet the requirements of potential partners - include domestic companies in international supply chains, localize the production of components in Russia, and conduct joint research and development work.

A separate topic is supporting the domestic market for civil aircraft. When asked by RG what incentives airlines renewing their fleet with domestic civil airliners SSJ100 and MC21 will be able to count on, they said that they will create special conditions, under which Russian aircraft will be competitive in operation.

The problem of accessibility to remote areas of Russia without developed airfield infrastructure will be solved, among other things, with the help of aircraft manufactured according to military transport aviation models. Taking into account the low serial production of such aircraft, the state will partially share costs with air carriers for their operation.

Personnel turnover

Another strategic task is to create conditions for scientific centers acted as independent experts in assessing design solutions and conducting certification.

For the first time in Russia there will be an institute of general designers of corporations. It is created to coordinate all activities in the field of creation military equipment, as well as for cooperation between various design bureaus. The main goal is to encourage the “flow of technology” from the military to the civilian sphere and back. In general, eliminate duplication of design developments.

The strategy mentions the term "flow" of personnel. He will be able to move within the industry depending on the workload of the enterprise, the availability of vacancies and the ambitions for the employees’ own career growth, the ministry explained.

“There are a lot of qualified workers, but they are distributed locally and are inactive compared to other countries. For the aviation industry and related industries, it is important that people are ready to move for interesting and well-paid work to factories that are experiencing a shortage of personnel, are ready to gain new knowledge, and share knowledge developments that have already helped restore the industrial complex of a particular region,” the department clarified.

The ministry is also considering a migration option in case of closure of unprofitable enterprises in single-industry towns. In addition to advanced training and retraining of personnel, the programs also provide assistance in resolving housing issues.

At the same time, market experts note that the Strategy covers too long a period - until 2030. The dynamics of the global development of the industry are such that the strategy will have to be updated much earlier.

Everything is private

The new industry strategy includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. The aviation industry now largely depends on government subsidies. The lack of extra-budgetary sources of funding did not allow the Aviation Industry Strategy 2015 to be fully implemented. Therefore, in the future, the focus is on additional private capital and the privatization of state-owned companies.

The total revenue of the aviation industry will be 2.6 trillion rubles by 2030 if the objectives of the Strategy are achieved

“There are different approaches to managing the industry around the world. The largest American and Canadian aircraft manufacturing companies are ruled by private capital, in Europe the state is a shareholder. Russia can choose an intermediate flexible scheme,” Oleg Panteleev approves of the turn to privatization.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade clarifies that privatization is one of the possible steps to change the industrial model. The so-called non-core areas for aircraft and helicopter manufacturers, which may account for up to 60 percent of all labor costs and investments, are going to be privatized.

Infographics: "RG" / Anton Perepletchikov / Elena Berezina

10

10th place - Pakistan

The Royal Pakistan Air Force was formed in 1947. The Pakistani Air Force actively participated in the wars with India, and during the Afghan War, it intercepted Soviet and Afghan aircraft invading the country's airspace. Pakistan purchases aircraft mainly made in America and China. The Air Force has 65,000 soldiers and officers (including 3,000 pilots). The state has about 955 combat, transport and training aircraft.

9

9th place - Türkiye

The Turkish Air Force was founded in 1911. By 1940, Turkey had the largest air force in the Middle East and Balkan Peninsula region. The Turkish air force participated in the invasion of Cyprus (1974) and military operations in the Balkans in the 1990s, and is also periodically involved in military operations within the country. The number of personnel is about 60,000 people. The company is developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the TF-X.

8

8th place - Egypt

The Egyptian Air Force was created on November 2, 1930 by decree of King Fuad I. Egyptian aviation took an active part in the Arab-Israeli wars. In the 1950-1970s, the aircraft in service were mainly Soviet-made aircraft. After the break in relations with the USSR, Egypt began purchasing aircraft from the USA and France. The number of troops is about 40 thousand people.

7

7th place - France

Created as part of the French army in 1910. The French Air Force actively participated in the First and Second World Wars. After the occupation of the country by Germany in 1940, the national air force split into the Vichy Air Force and the Free French Air Force. Main producer aviation technology- Dassault Aviation company. It is engaged not only in the creation of military types of aircraft, but also regional and business class ones. The second largest company, Airbus S.A.S, produces cargo, military transport and passenger aircraft.

6

6th place - South Korea

The basis of the weapons are American-made airplanes and helicopters, but the government South Korea Considerable efforts are being made to organize the production of its military equipment and reduce dependence on the United States in military-economic terms. There are also a number of Russian, English, Spanish and Indonesian-made aircraft in service. In terms of the number of aircraft and the number of personnel, the South Korean Air Force is more than half that of the North, but it is armed with more modern equipment, and the average flight time of its pilots is higher. Since 1997, the Air Force Academy has admitted female cadets. The number of members is about 65 thousand people.

5

5th place - Japan

Air Force The Japanese Self-Defense Force was established in 1954. Until the end of World War II, aviation was directly subordinate to the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy. It was not allocated as a separate type of troops. After the Second World War, during the formation of new armed forces The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force was formed, which received US-made aircraft. After the United States refused to sell the fifth-generation F-22 fighter to Japan in 2007, the Japanese government decided to build the Mitsubishi ATD-X, its own fifth-generation aircraft. On this moment The number of personnel is 47,123 people.

4

4th place - India

The Indian Air Force was created on October 8, 1932, and the first squadron appeared in its composition on April 1, 1933. They played an important role in the fighting on the Burma front during World War II. In 1945-1950, the Indian Air Force used the prefix “royal”. Indian aviation has taken an active part in the wars with Pakistan, as well as in a number of smaller operations and conflicts. As of 2017, the number of personnel is 127,000 people.

3

3rd place - China

The PLA Air Force was created on November 11, 1949 after the victory of the Chinese Communist Party in civil war. The Soviet Union played a major role in their creation and armament. In the mid-1950s, production of Soviet aircraft began in Chinese factories. The “Great Leap Forward”, the rupture of relations with the USSR and the “cultural revolution” caused serious damage to the Chinese Air Force. Despite this, the development of its own combat aircraft began in the 1960s. After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR, China began modernizing its air force, purchasing Su-30 multirole fighters from Russia and mastering the licensed production of Su-27 fighters. Later, China terminated the contract for the supply of Russian fighters and began producing its own aircraft based on the know-how received. The number of personnel is 330,000 people.

2

2nd place - Russia

Since 1998, they have been a new branch of the Russian Armed Forces, formed as a result of the merger of the Air Force (Air Force) and the Armed Forces air defense(air defense). The basis of the combat strength of the Air Force are air bases and brigades of aerospace defense forces. During the war years, 44,093 pilots were trained. 27,600 were killed in action: 11,874 fighter pilots, 7,837 attack pilots, 6,613 bomber crew members, 587 reconnaissance pilots and 689 auxiliary aviation pilots. After the collapse of the USSR in December 1991, the USSR Air Force was divided between Russia and other former Soviet republics. As a result of this division, Russia received approximately 40% of the equipment and 65% of the personnel of the Soviet Air Force, becoming the only post-Soviet space a state with long-range strategic aviation. Many aircraft were transferred from the former Soviet republics to Russia. Some were destroyed. In particular, 11 new Tu-160 bombers located in Ukraine were disposed of in cooperation with the United States.

In January 2008, Air Force Commander-in-Chief A.N. Zelin called the state of Russian aerospace defense critical. In 2009, purchases of new aircraft for the Russian Air Force approached the levels of purchases of Soviet-era aircraft. The fifth generation fighter PAK FA is being tested; its first flight took place on January 29, 2010. The 5th generation fighters are planned to enter service with the troops in 2020. The number of personnel is 148 thousand people.

1

1st place - USA

In terms of the number of personnel and the number of aircraft, they are the largest air force in the world. IN modern form The United States Air Force was formed on September 18, 1947, shortly after the end of World War II. Until this moment they were part of the US Army. The number of personnel is 329,638 people.

The United States Air Force provides high mobility for the American military. In this component, no army in the world comes even close to the United States. The Air Force is a special type of force for the United States, which includes two components of the strategic triad: intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and strategic aviation. It is the US Air Force that is a kind of pole of attraction for most of the innovations that Americans are actively using in the military industry.

General characteristics of the world market

The growth prospects for the civil aviation market are highly dependent on rising aviation fuel prices and the average annual growth rate of the global economy and trade. At the average annual growth rate of the world economy in 2007-2025. At the level of 3.1% per year, the average annual growth in air passenger transportation over the same period will be 4.9%, and cargo transportation - 6.1%. Then, according to forecast estimates from Boeing Co., the volume of the market for new civil aircraft in 2007-2025. will be about 2.6-2.8 trillion. dollars. In the period until 2025, airlines will need approx. 28,600 new passenger and cargo aircraft. The global civil aircraft fleet will more than double from 17,330 aircraft (2005) to approximately 36,000 (2025). These will mainly be narrow-body (100-240 passengers) and wide-body (200-400 passengers) aircraft. 9,580 new airliners will replace less fuel-efficient aircraft being phased out of the companies' fleets. Most of them will be written off, but 2,220 passenger airliners will be converted into cargo planes. In addition, airlines will receive 770 new cargo aircraft.

Aircraft belonging to this segment, such as the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777, will allow airlines to successfully develop by operating more flights in large quantity airports, which meets the needs of passengers. Aircraft of the Boeing 747 class and larger capacity will be actively used on routes connecting Asian countries with other regions, as well as on transatlantic routes. According to forecasts, there will be a strong market demand for high-capacity cargo aircraft due to their high efficiency, reliability, flight range and excellent load factors.

The number of 30-60-seat aircraft operating in the world by 2015 will slightly exceed the 2000 units available in 2005, and by 2025 it will be 2500 units. At the same time, the number of cars with 61-90 passenger seats will increase from the current 700 to 1,700 in 2015 and 3,300 in 2025. The demand for cars with a capacity of 91 to 120 passengers will expand at the fastest pace. If in 2005 there were just over 700 of them in the world's airlines, then by 2015 the fleet of such aircraft will increase to 2,500, and by 2025 - to 3,800 units. In total, by 2025, 7,950 aircraft with a capacity of 30-120 passengers will be sold worldwide for about $180 billion.

The business class aircraft market is developing rapidly, and the trend towards expanding sales in it will continue over the medium term. In 2005, 737 business aircraft were sold worldwide, 850 were delivered in 2006, and in 2007 (according to preliminary estimates), the expansion of sales approached the level of 1000 aircraft. For the period 2008-2010. the total volume of orders is estimated at 3.1-3.4 thousand aircraft. The main customers will be North American companies (61% of orders), which must update their fleet of business class aircraft by 23%. Steady demand is expected from European countries, and it will expand as a result of rising incomes of the population of Russia and Eastern European countries. By 2011-2012 a jump (up to 50% compared to current levels) in orders from Asia, Africa and the Middle East is predicted.

In total, approximately 24,000 business jets will be produced worldwide between 2007 and 2025.

According to Boeing Co.'s forecast, by 2026 airlines will acquire:

3,700 regional aircraft (capacity less than 90 passengers);

17,650 narrow-body aircraft (90-240 passengers in a two-class configuration);

6290 wide-body aircraft (200-400 passengers in a three-class configuration);

960 aircraft of the Boeing 747 class and larger capacity (more than 400 passengers in a three-class configuration).

Geographies of world production and consumption

The global civil aircraft market is currently supplied primarily by the products of four companies: the long-haul aircraft market is the sphere of interest of Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EU), and the vast majority of deliveries of regional aircraft are provided by Bombardier (Canada), Embraer (Brazil) and ATR ( Italy). The positions of other aircraft manufacturing enterprises in the world, including Russian ones, in this market at the moment can be described as starting ones.

In 2006, the world leaders in the civil aviation industry produced ~820 mainline and ~250 regional aircraft of all types.

The largest market in the period 2006-2025. will be the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - 36% of the total amount of 2.8 trillion. dollars, which is due to significant demand for wide-body aircraft in the region. Airlines from North America will account for 28% of purchases, and Europe – 24%. The remaining 12% comes from customers from countries Latin America, Middle East and Africa.

An additional operational factor for the Asian market compared to the American and Western European markets is the presence of large passenger flows with a short length of air lines. With a large market volume this feature may lead to the emergence of modifications or types of aircraft designed specifically for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

The number of countries producing aircraft is expected to expand. Traditional players in the long-haul aircraft market, the European aviation industry and the American Boeing Corporation, will face competition from Russian (UAC), Asian manufacturers (AVIC-I, Mitsubishi HI), as well as long-haul aircraft projects created by companies that are traditional representatives of the regional and business markets. aviation (Bombardier and Embraer companies). The market for regional jet aircraft will also gain multipolar supply due to falling into the sphere of interests of the aviation industry of developing countries. In addition to the traditional players represented by Embraer and Bombardier, who currently share the market almost equally, the Russian SSJ-100 and the Chinese ARJ-21 are possible to enter the market in the near future.

New products and technologies

Main trends in technological development civil aircraft industry for the period until 2025 include the following areas:

development of environmentally friendly power plants (ensuring a noise margin of 15 EPNdB, as well as a 20% reduction in emissions of harmful substances);

improvement of aircraft consumption characteristics civil aviation(on average by 20%);

improving the aerodynamics of the airframe (search for alternative layouts, implementation of the concept of a load-bearing fuselage);

implementation of the concept of a fully electric aircraft (development of engines with an integrated electric generator, electrical control systems for aerodynamic surfaces, an autonomous air conditioning system, electric mechanisms for retracting and extending the landing gear, restandardization of the on-board electrical system);

“black plane” - a constructive and technological solution to the problems of manufacturing an aircraft structure from lightweight composite materials (for example, with carbon reinforcement);

the use of nanotechnology to control the boundary layer, solve problems of increasing the strength of structures (nanomaterials), interactive diagnostics and taking readings of pressure, temperature, deformation, etc. (nanosensors);

global implementation of digital flight navigation aids using satellite navigation systems.

• Boeing's forecast for the next 20 years shows a 3.5 percent increase in aircraft demand over 2014.
• The narrowbody and small/medium widebody markets are leading the growth in terms of number and total value of aircraft

Boeing forecasts a need for 38,050 new aircraft over the next 20 years, up 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. The company today released its annual Current Market Outlook, estimating the total cost of new aircraft needed at $5.6 trillion.

“The commercial aircraft market remains strong and stable,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Looking ahead, we expect continued market growth and strong demand for new aircraft.”

By the end of the forecast period, the civil aircraft fleet will double, from 21,600 units in 2014 to 43,560 in 2034. The growth will come from 58 percent of the 38,050 aircraft delivered during the period. Passenger traffic growth will continue at about 4.9 percent annually, almost reaching the historical trend of 5 percent. Over 7 billion passengers will be transported by the end of the forecast period. Air cargo transportation will increase annually by approximately 4.7 percent.

The single-aisle aircraft market continues to lead growth and, as the largest segment, will require 26,730 aircraft over the next two decades. These aircraft are the backbone of the world's airline fleets, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of civil aviation routes. The growth of this segment is due to the growth of low-cost airlines and traditional airlines in emerging markets.

“The Boeing 737-800 and the future 737 MAX 8 occupy a central position in the narrowbody segment,” Tinseth said. “These aircraft provide customers with the highest fuel efficiency, regularity and in-class performance.”

About 35 percent of narrowbodies will be operated by low-cost airlines, Tinseth added: “Low-cost airlines will require aircraft that combine maximum profitability with the highest profit potential. With a 20 percent reduction in fuel consumption, the 737 MAX 200 is the ideal aircraft for them.”

Boeing forecasts that the wide-body segment of the market will require 8,830 new aircraft. First of all, small wide-body aircraft with a passenger capacity of 200 to 300 seats, such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner, will be in demand. This year's forecast continues to reflect a shift in demand from very large aircraft towards fuel-efficient new twin-engine aircraft such as the 787 and the new 777X.

While much of the need for new aircraft is still driven by airline growth, replacements will require a large number of aging ships, the number of which is constantly growing. Every year, 2 to 3 percent of the operating fleet will need to be updated.

“The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are ideally positioned to take advantage of this wave of replacements,” Tinseth said.

The cargo market continues to strengthen and will require approximately 920 new aircraft over the 20-year period covered by the forecast.

“We have seen strong growth in the air cargo market over the past two years and expect this market to continue to grow,” Tinseth said. “This is great news for our cargo aircraft business, including the 767, 777 and 747-8.”

Boeing's annual market forecasts have the longest history and represent the most comprehensive analysis of the airline industry. WITH full report available at www.boeing.com/cmo.

Deliveries of new aircraft: 2015-2034

Over the next two decades, the Asian market, including China, will lead in total supply.