The civil aircraft industry in Russia began to develop and bring losses. Global trends in the development of aircraft manufacturing enterprises Dynamics of prices for passenger aircraft manufacturers in the world

Russian aircraft and helicopter manufacturers today face new challenges. They will have to integrate more actively into the global market, quickly introduce new technologies and, if necessary, exchange qualified personnel.

These and other steps are contained in the draft updated Aviation Industry Strategy until 2030. In addition, the document includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. “We are in favor of actively attracting private capital to the industry,” explained Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.

Benefits are not canceled

For industry participants, existing state support measures will remain and even expand. “We will encourage our airlines to purchase a fleet of Russian-made aircraft,” Denis Manturov clarified.

According to him, a new generation of suppliers must emerge, working to the most stringent standards, in demand not only in the domestic but also in the world market. “Aviation industry corporations are already working in this direction,” the minister clarified.

As before, the state is relying on aviation science and ensuring the technological sovereignty of the country. “As a result, we expect to build an economically stable, globally competitive industry, integrated into the international division of labor,” Manturov concluded.

The supplier is small but smart

A new generation of suppliers, including small and medium-sized businesses, will work not only for the aviation industry, but also for related industries - automotive, space, shipbuilding, transport engineering and others.

Today, all of the world's largest aircraft and helicopter manufacturers work with a variety of large and small component manufacturers, concentrating on the best product development, quality workmanship and impeccable after-sales service.

In Russia, the outdated industrial model of “full cycle” enterprises is still used - from casting to assembly of final products. IN modern world There are almost no such enterprises left - it is unprofitable.

The world welcomes broad cooperation and division of labor, the authors of the document state. According to Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, the strategy directly points to the key features of the “domestic aircraft industry” and proposes ways to solve them in line with trends in the global aviation industry. This means that the emphasis must be placed on the independent development of so-called critical technologies that ensure competitiveness, on inclusion in international cooperation and division of labor.

Digital Factory

The most pressing problem for Russian aircraft manufacturers is the cramped domestic market and the closed nature of many foreign markets.

“The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) plans to produce about 35 SSJ100 aircraft per year in the near future. The capabilities allow us to double production and ensure production profitability due to the scale of the business. But aircraft in such quantities are not required within the country. Our passengers do not earn that much and they don’t fly as often as Europeans or Americans,” Oleg Panteleev explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. That is why it is extremely important for Russian aircraft manufacturers to gain access to the international market.

“A breakthrough into the Asian markets can be ensured by the implementation of the joint Russian-Chinese project of a wide-body long-range aircraft (WLDMS),” believes Oleg Panteleev.

The development of military aircraft exports will be facilitated by the successful combat use of attack aircraft in Syria.

“It is important to understand what will be in demand in other countries. We are relying on new aircraft models. These are SSJ100, MC21, Ka62, Mi38, Ansat,” the ministry explains.

Let us remind you that the SSJ100 is a regional passenger aircraft created in close international cooperation, the Ansat is a modern helicopter for wide use for civil and special purposes. Ka62 and Mi38 are multi-purpose helicopters, MC21 is a short-medium-haul aircraft.

The aviation industry now has more than 250 industrial enterprises and over 400 thousand employees

The updated Aviation Industry Strategy places emphasis on enhanced scientific and technical development of the industry. Despite the implementation of promising projects in recent years, Russia has accumulated a gap with industry leaders, especially in the civilian segment. Many key technologies in the Russian aviation industry were developed back in the 1980s. And now in the global market, the requirements for future aircraft are related to digital technologies and innovations.

For example, Airbus is introducing a “digital factory” into production - an innovation that will increase productivity and reduce logistics and energy costs by 30%. Boeing and Airbus are beginning to use a 3D printing method that increases the strength of products by five times and reduces raw material costs by 90 percent. The development of after-sales service is also important: with the help of new developments in the world, the speed of service provision is increasing.

The projects that will turn the situation around could be the MC21 and the Russian-Chinese aircraft ShFDMS, the Ministry of Industry and Trade expects.

Let's fly into the alliance

What methods of integration into the global aviation industry are offered? In addition to export government support measures, there is close cooperation with countries developing their own aviation industry.

"For example, China does not have sufficient experience in the design of civil wide-body aircraft and aircraft engines. India does not have its own developments in fifth-generation fighter aircraft, civil regional aircraft, narrow- and wide-body aircraft. The Russian aviation industry has competencies and technologies in these areas and can be a reliable partner for these countries,” the Ministry of Industry and Trade explains.

In addition, they plan to build international alliances according to the “competence in exchange for market” scheme (for example, with China and India). Moreover, the possibility of creating joint ventures with developing countries to develop, produce and promote aircraft is being considered.

In projects with international participation with high-tech countries, Russia aims to cooperate with France, Germany, the USA, Great Britain, and Japan. “The creation of conditions for international cooperation will be achieved, among other things, through political support from the state, in particular, at the level of intergovernmental agreements,” the Strategy says.

When purchasing foreign aircraft, industry participants, together with the state, will look for opportunities to meet the requirements of potential partners - include domestic companies in international supply chains, localize the production of components in Russia, and conduct joint research and development work.

A separate topic is supporting the domestic market for civil aircraft. When asked by RG what incentives airlines renewing their fleet with domestic civil airliners SSJ100 and MC21 will be able to count on, they said that they will create special conditions, under which Russian aircraft will be competitive in operation.

The problem of accessibility to remote areas of Russia without developed airfield infrastructure will be solved, among other things, with the help of aircraft manufactured according to military transport aviation models. Taking into account the low serial production of such aircraft, the state will partially share the costs with air carriers for their operation.

Personnel turnover

Another strategic task is to create conditions for scientific centers acted as independent experts in assessing design solutions and conducting certification.

For the first time in Russia there will be an institute of general designers of corporations. It is created to coordinate all activities in the field of creation military equipment, as well as for cooperation between various design bureaus. The main goal is to encourage the “flow of technology” from the military to the civilian sphere and back. In general, eliminate duplication of design developments.

The strategy mentions the term "flow" of personnel. He will be able to move within the industry depending on the workload of the enterprise, the availability of vacancies and the ambitions for the employees’ own career growth, the ministry explained.

“There are a lot of qualified workers, but they are distributed locally and are inactive compared to other countries. For the aviation industry and related industries, it is important that people are ready to move for interesting and well-paid work to factories that are experiencing a shortage of personnel, are ready to gain new knowledge, and share knowledge developments that have already helped restore the industrial complex of a particular region,” the department clarified.

The ministry is also considering a migration option in case of closure of unprofitable enterprises in single-industry towns. In addition to advanced training and retraining of personnel, the programs also provide assistance in resolving housing issues.

At the same time, market experts note that the Strategy covers too long a period - until 2030. The dynamics of the global development of the industry are such that the strategy will have to be updated much earlier.

Everything is private

The new industry strategy includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. The aviation industry now largely depends on government subsidies. The lack of extra-budgetary sources of funding did not allow us to fully implement the Aviation Industry Strategy 2015. Therefore, in the future the focus is on additional private capital and the privatization of state-owned companies.

The total revenue of the aviation industry will be 2.6 trillion rubles by 2030 if the objectives of the Strategy are achieved

“There are different approaches to managing the industry around the world. The largest American and Canadian aircraft manufacturing companies are ruled by private capital, in Europe the state is a shareholder. Russia can choose an intermediate flexible scheme,” Oleg Panteleev approves of the turn to privatization.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade clarifies that privatization is one of the possible steps to change the industrial model. The so-called non-core areas for aircraft and helicopter manufacturers, which may account for up to 60 percent of all labor costs and investments, are going to be privatized.

Infographics: "RG" / Anton Perepletchikov / Elena Berezina

The American concern Boeing has raised its forecast for the growth of the new passenger aircraft. On Thursday in London the company presented its annual market forecast civil aviation(Current Market Outlook), estimating the total cost of new aircraft required at $5.2 trillion. The concern predicts demand for 36,770 new aircraft over the next 20 years. The previous forecast was about 35 thousand aircraft worth $4.8 trillion.

“This is a strong and stable market,” said VP of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “With the introduction of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft, air travel growth is being driven by customers who want the ability to fly wherever they want, whenever they want.”

Demand figures have been boosted this year by the single-aisle aircraft market, which is forecast to become the fastest-growing and dynamic segment as low-cost airlines continue to enter the market. This segment will require 25,680 new aircraft worth $2.56 trillion, representing 70% of projected demand.

“Given the stunning order and delivery forecast, we see 160-passenger aircraft as the core of the single-aisle market,” Tinseth said. - This market is undoubtedly gravitating towards this dimension, which allows you to combine operational efficiency with flexibility route network. The Next-Generation 737-800 and new 737 MAX 8 aircraft offer our customers the highest revenue potential in this category."

Boeing's main competitor, the European aircraft concern Airbus, is also betting on the narrow-body market. Sales of the flagship A321 model in the narrow-body aircraft segment increased by 20% and now account for about half of the total volume of narrow-body aircraft produced by the concern.

Demand for other types of aircraft will also increase. The forecast for sales in the regional airliner segment increased by 25%, to $100 billion, or 2,490 units. In 2013, the company forecast deliveries of regional jets at $80 billion, or 2,020 units.

Sales will also increase in the small wide-body and medium wide-body aircraft segments. At the same time, the number of orders in the segment of small wide-body aircraft, despite the growth in market volume, will decrease from 4,530 to 4,520 units.

Unlike the small and medium wide-body aircraft segment, the market for large wide-body aircraft with a passenger capacity of more than 400 seats will shrink, Boeing analysts predict. The concern expects a reduction in sales from $280 billion to $240 billion, and the total number of aircraft sold will be reduced from 760 to 620 units. Boeing estimates that the capacity of an average wide-body two-aisle airliner will increase by 20 seats over the next 20 years, and that of a narrow-body airliner by 10. Airplanes will become longer, aisles will become narrower, and the distances between seats will be reduced.

Over the next two decades, the market for new aircraft will gradually become more geographically balanced. At the same time, the main driver for market growth will be the Asia-Pacific region.

Over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific market, including China, will lead in the total number of aircraft supplied to the region. According to Boeing analysts, in 2033 the total size of the Asia-Pacific aircraft fleet will increase from the current 5,470 to 15,220 aircraft. The CIS market will also grow significantly. Over the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operating in the CIS will increase from 1,180 to 1,820 units.

The American aviation concern's immediate plans include the presentation of a new generation of the medium wide-body Boeing 787-9, which is 7 m longer than the current top model Dreamliner 787-8 and can accommodate 40 more passengers. The aircraft should be presented to the general public for the first time early next week at the Farnborough Air Show. Boeing's main competitor, Airbus, will also present a new long-haul aircraft, the A350, with deliveries scheduled to begin at the end of 2014.

had a beneficial effect on her aviation market. The demand for new aircraft has noticeably revived, since one of the main problems of airlines continues to be an outdated fleet of equipment. It is expected that in the coming years more than 1,000 aircraft of European and domestic production (including those produced in the CIS countries) will be purchased.

The leaders of world aircraft production (Airbus and Boeing) predict two types of development of air passenger transportation. According to the vision of Airbus specialists, a hub-and-spoke model (hubs and spokes) will be implemented, which essentially means the following. From regional airports, passengers travel by medium and small planes to a large hub, from where flights are carried out. long-haul flights to similar centers of the world.

Boeing analysts see a different path of development, proposing a point-to-point model, that is, the passenger gets to their destination with minimal transfers. Both companies presented long-haul aircraft designs to the market that would enable the implementation of the proposed models for the development of air travel.

The Russian aviation market implements both models. The number of point-to-point flights within the country will inevitably increase, and hub-and-spoke flights will be carried out international flights. Already, the demand for wide-body aircraft is increasing, and the demand for long-distance international flights, according to experts, will grow over the next 15-18 years to 5% annually. Growing incomes of citizens, liberalization of transport laws and cheaper services will also affect the domestic aviation market, which will also grow.

The situation now and the near future

As of today, there are about two hundred airlines operating in Russia. However, by 2025, a maximum of a couple of dozen of them will remain successful. Small regional companies continue to go bankrupt, since the majority of them consist of obsolete (still Soviet) aircraft received from them, which have practically exhausted their flight life. But such companies cannot afford to purchase new equipment, and will be forced to leave the aviation market.

Only large network airlines can count on success in the future. They still operate successfully today, have an established network of routes that are profitable and familiar to passengers, and have programs for updating their fleet of vehicles. Among the successful airlines that represent the country's aviation market are Aeroflot, S7, UTair, AiRUnion, Transaero and some others. The share of passenger traffic of each by 2020 will be at least 10 million people annually. It is possible that closely related companies may consolidate in the future, which will allow them to gain considerable advantages and profitably purchase new aircraft.

Already, the most successful airlines in Russia are abandoning the secondary aircraft market, along with the world's leading airlines, purchasing the latest developments from aircraft manufacturers. The only drawback for the aviation market and the domestic economy as a whole is that the Russian aviation industry will not be able to present a decent competitive aircraft for medium-haul flights sooner than in 10-12 years (with the possible exception of the Sukhoi SuperJet).

How the regional air transportation market will change

It is in the domestic aviation market for regional transportation that many experts see the future of aviation. Here the main competitor continues to be the railway: cheaper, simpler, no passport or face control required, no need for advance registration. However, it is expected that over time the price of air tickets will become closer to railway tickets and more affordable, and security measures will be tightened at train stations. Of course, even the rise in price train tickets will leave their positions 20-30% more profitable, but an absolute advantage railway will leave.

If taking the train is only slightly more convenient than going through security on a plane, and the ticket prices are comparable, then many passengers will ultimately prefer planes. Their undeniable advantage in the speed of travel to the desired location is undeniable. It is from this moment that air transportation by small aircraft over short distances will boost the Russian aviation market, when half-forgotten flights between neighboring cities and regions will return.

There is hope that the expected gigantic potential of the domestic air transportation market will prevent the authorities from handing it over to foreign carriers. Today they do not have access to the domestic Russian aviation market; there is an agreement at the intergovernmental level regulating air transportation between Russia and other countries. The number of flights is clearly recorded and even a specific carrier from the country is determined. The leading position is occupied by Aeroflot, which is assigned carrier powers on most foreign routes. However, after joining the WTO it will not be easy for him to maintain his position.

General characteristics of the world market

The growth prospects for the civil aviation market are highly dependent on rising aviation fuel prices and the average annual growth rate of the global economy and trade. At the average annual growth rate of the world economy in 2007-2025. At the level of 3.1% per year, the average annual growth in air passenger transportation over the same period will be 4.9%, and cargo transportation - 6.1%. Then, according to forecast estimates from Boeing Co., the volume of the market for new civil aircraft in 2007-2025. will be about 2.6-2.8 trillion. dollars. In the period until 2025, airlines will need approx. 28,600 new passenger and cargo aircraft. The global civil aircraft fleet will more than double from 17,330 aircraft (2005) to approximately 36,000 (2025). These will mainly be narrow-body (100-240 passengers) and wide-body (200-400 passengers) aircraft. 9,580 new airliners will replace less fuel-efficient aircraft being phased out of the companies' fleets. Most of them will be written off, but 2,220 passenger airliners will be converted into cargo planes. In addition, airlines will receive 770 new cargo aircraft.

Aircraft belonging to this segment, such as the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777, will allow airlines to successfully develop by operating more flights in more airports, which meets the needs of passengers. Aircraft of the Boeing 747 class and larger capacity will be actively used on routes connecting Asian countries with other regions, as well as on transatlantic routes. According to forecasts, there will be a strong demand in the market for high-capacity cargo aircraft due to their high efficiency, reliability, flight range and excellent load factors.

The number of 30-60-seat aircraft operating in the world by 2015 will slightly exceed the 2000 units available in 2005, and by 2025 it will be 2500 units. At the same time, the number of cars with 61-90 passenger seats will increase from the current 700 to 1,700 in 2015 and 3,300 in 2025. The demand for cars with a capacity of 91 to 120 passengers will expand at the fastest pace. If in 2005 there were just over 700 of them in the world's airlines, then by 2015 the fleet of such aircraft will increase to 2,500, and by 2025 - to 3,800 units. In total, by 2025, 7,950 aircraft with a capacity of 30-120 passengers will be sold worldwide for about $180 billion.

The business class aircraft market is developing rapidly, and the trend towards expanding sales in it will continue over the medium term. In 2005, 737 business aircraft were sold worldwide, 850 were delivered in 2006, and in 2007 (according to preliminary estimates), the expansion of sales approached the level of 1000 aircraft. For the period 2008-2010. the total volume of orders is estimated at 3.1-3.4 thousand aircraft. The main customers will be North American companies (61% of orders), which must renew their fleet of business class aircraft by 23%. Steady demand is expected from European countries, and it will expand as a result of rising incomes of the population of Russia and Eastern European countries. By 2011-2012 a jump (up to 50% compared to current levels) in orders from Asia, Africa and the Middle East is predicted.

In total, approximately 24,000 business jets will be produced worldwide between 2007 and 2025.

According to Boeing Co.'s forecast, by 2026 airlines will acquire:

3,700 regional aircraft (capacity less than 90 passengers);

17,650 narrow-body aircraft (90-240 passengers in a two-class configuration);

6290 wide-body aircraft (200-400 passengers in a three-class configuration);

960 aircraft of the Boeing 747 class and larger capacity (more than 400 passengers in a three-class configuration).

Geographies of world production and consumption

The global civil aircraft market is currently supplied predominantly by the products of four companies: the long-haul aircraft market is the sphere of interest of Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EU), and the vast majority of deliveries of regional aircraft are provided by Bombardier (Canada), Embraer (Brazil) and ATR ( Italy). The positions of other aircraft manufacturing enterprises in the world, including Russian ones, in this market at the moment can be described as starting ones.

In 2006, the world leaders in the civil aviation industry produced ~820 mainline and ~250 regional aircraft of all types.

The largest market in the period 2006-2025. will be the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - 36% of the total amount of 2.8 trillion. dollars, which is due to significant demand for wide-body aircraft in the region. Airlines from North America will account for 28% of purchases, and Europe – 24%. The remaining 12% comes from customers from countries Latin America, Middle East and Africa.

An additional operational factor for the Asian market compared to the American and Western European markets is the presence of large passenger flows with a short length of air lines. With a large market volume this feature may lead to the emergence of modifications or types of aircraft designed specifically for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

The number of producing countries is expected to expand aviation technology. Traditional players in the long-haul aircraft market, the European aviation industry and the American Boeing Corporation, will face competition from Russian (UAC), Asian manufacturers (AVIC-I, Mitsubishi HI), as well as long-haul aircraft projects created by companies that are traditional representatives of the regional and business markets. aviation (Bombardier and Embraer companies). The market for regional jet aircraft will also gain multipolar supply due to falling into the sphere of interests of the aviation industry of developing countries. In addition to the traditional players represented by Embraer and Bombardier, who currently share the market almost equally, the Russian SSJ-100 and the Chinese ARJ-21 are possible to enter the market in the near future.

New products and technologies

The main trends in the technological development of the civil aircraft industry for the period until 2025 include the following areas:

development of environmentally friendly power plants (ensuring a noise margin of 15 EPNdB, as well as a 20% reduction in emissions of harmful substances);

improving the consumption characteristics of civil aviation aircraft (by an average of 20%);

improving the aerodynamics of the airframe (search for alternative layouts, implementation of the concept of a load-bearing fuselage);

implementation of the concept of a fully electric aircraft (development of engines with an integrated electric generator, electrical control systems for aerodynamic surfaces, an autonomous air conditioning system, electric mechanisms for retracting and extending the landing gear, restandardization of the on-board electrical system);

“black plane” - a constructive and technological solution to the problems of manufacturing an aircraft structure from lightweight composite materials (for example, with carbon reinforcement);

the use of nanotechnology to control the boundary layer, solve problems of increasing the strength of structures (nanomaterials), interactive diagnostics and taking readings of pressure, temperature, deformation, etc. (nanosensors);

global implementation of digital flight navigation aids using satellite navigation systems.

The global civil aircraft market is 90% “captured” by the American company Boeing and the European manufacturer Airbus. However, it seems that the hegemony of these companies will soon come to an end. Who is capable of ousting these titans? Which companies and countries are going to get into the fray?

The civil aircraft market is a global growing market without national borders and at the same time is characterized by fierce competition from national manufacturers. Due to the enormous technological challenges and high costs, only a small number of countries and a few large companies work in the aircraft manufacturing industry. Thus, in the market of aircraft manufacturers, competition is oligopolistic in nature, i.e. dominated by a few large international companies that have the strongest influence on the entire market.

The leaders of the civil aircraft industry in recent decades have been Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EC), occupying more than 90% of the global passenger aircraft market, however, the technological development of the industry and the emerging demand features in the coming years will lead to the destruction of the already familiar duopoly of Western aircraft. aircraft manufacturing giants. In this work, we deliberately do not include in the analysis the plight of the domestic aviation industry, which was the subject of another article by the author (Tolkachev S.A. New look of the domestic aviation industry // “Capital of the Country”, 09/01/2010.), in order to consider in its pure form the hard the global market for civil airliners, where Russia is destined for a place on the margins after the inglorious surrender of positions (in fact, like in the First World War) as a result of the collapse of the USSR and the socialist bloc in 1989-1991. One of the forms of indemnity for the supposed “defeat” of the USSR in the Cold War with the West was the surrender to the “winners” of the gigantic civil aircraft market, estimated at that time at 40% of the world market. As will become clear from the further presentation, only on this basis “democratic” Russia, as the legal successor of the USSR, lost at least 1 trillion in 20 years. dollars (!) or the total value of oil exports for the same period. Therefore, take a serious approach to analyzing the global airliner market with the participation of fragments of the mighty Soviet aircraft industry, which today is timidly knocking on the door either with unfinished late Soviet developments (Tu-204, Tu-334, An-148), or with generics of Western models (Sukhoi Superjet 100, MS-21), I just don’t want to.

1. Main segments of the civil airliner market

All produced in the world civil aircraft, intended for mass transportation of passengers, are divided into the following segments depending on the type of fuselage and flight range:

1) medium and long-range wide-body aircraft:

The fuselage diameter is from 5 to 6 meters. An airplane with two aisles between the seats in the cabin. There are usually 7 to 10 passenger seats per row. For comparison, narrow-body aircraft usually have a fuselage diameter of 3-4 meters. In the passenger cabin of a wide-body aircraft, the seats are arranged in 3-5 rows. On average, a wide-body aircraft can carry 300-500 people.

The following wide-body aircraft are currently in operation (Table 1):

Table 1. Major wide-body aircraft in service.

2) medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft:

The fuselage diameter is up to 4 meters. Compared to wide-body aircraft, narrow-body aircraft carry a much smaller number of passengers and, as a rule, have a shorter flight range. Maximum passenger capacity is 289 people.

Narrow-body aircraft in particular include (Table 2):

• The Airbus A320 is the most popular European passenger jet aircraft.
• The Boeing 737 is the most popular passenger jet in the world.
• Il-62 is a narrow-body aircraft with the longest flight range.
• Tu-154 is the most popular Soviet passenger jet aircraft,

Table 2. Major narrow-body aircraft in service.

3) regional aircraft:

Regional aircraft include even smaller aircraft. They carry up to 100 passengers over distances of up to 2-3 thousand kilometers. These aircraft can be equipped with both turboprop and turbojet engines. Such aircraft include aircraft of the ERJ, CRJ, ATR, Dash-8 and SAAB families (Table 3).

Table 3. Main types of regional aircraft in service.

4) local planes:

The smallest class of passenger aircraft consists of local aircraft designed to transport a small number of passengers (from 20) over distances of up to 1000 kilometers. They are most often equipped with turboprop or piston engines. The most common aircraft of this class are produced by Cessna and Beechcraft.

For a better understanding, we present comparative table 4, which includes all segments of civil airliners.

Table 4. Segments of the passenger aircraft market and their projected capacity (in kind and value) for the period 2005-2024.

2. Main companies participating in the civil airliner market

The passenger aircraft market has historically been dominated by American and European manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus are the largest manufacturers of civil aircraft in the world.

Airbus S.A.S (pronounced Airbus) is one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies, producing passenger, cargo and military transport aircraft of the same name. The company's headquarters are located in Toulouse, France. In 2001, according to French law, it was merged into a joint stock company or “S.A.S.” (French Société par Actions Simplifiée - simplified joint stock company). Airbus's sole shareholder is EADS. Airbus has a staff of about 50 thousand people and is concentrated mainly in four European countries: France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain. The final assembly of products is carried out at the company's factories in the cities of Toulouse (France) and Hamburg (Germany).

Model range of civilian Airbus aircraft started with the A300 twin-engine aircraft. The shortened version of the A300 is known as the A310. Based on the lack of success of the A300, Airbus began developing the A320 project with an innovative fly-by-wire control system. The A320 was a great commercial success for the company. The A318 and A319 are shortened versions of the A320, which, with some modifications, are offered by Airbus for the Airbus CorporateJet market. A stretched version of the A320 is known as the A321 and competes with the later Boeing 737 models.

Inspired by the success of the A320 family, Airbus management decided to develop a family of even larger airliners. This is how the twin-engine A330 and four-engine A340 appeared. One of the key features of the new aircraft is the new wing design; it has a greater relative thickness, which increases its structural efficiency and internal fuel volumes. The Airbus A340-500 has a flight range of 16,700 kilometers, which is the second longest flight range of commercial jet aircraft after the Boeing 777-200LR (range 17,446 km).

The company is especially proud of its proprietary fly-by-wire technology, unified cockpit and on-board systems used across all families of proprietary aircraft; they make crew training and retraining for new models much easier.

The company's latest development, the A350XWB, is designed to compete with new model Boeing - 787.

The Boeing Company– one of the world's largest manufacturers of aviation, space and military equipment.

The headquarters is located in Chicago (Illinois, USA).

The company's main production facilities are located in the following cities: Everett (Washington State), California, St. Louis (Missouri).

The company produces a wide range of civil and military aircraft, being, along with Airbus, the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world. In addition, Boeing produces a wide range of military aerospace equipment (including helicopters) and conducts large-scale space programs (for example, the CST-100 spacecraft).

The company's factories are located in 67 countries. The company supplies its products to 145 countries. Boeing works with more than 5,200 suppliers in 100 countries.

In 2001, a division of Boeing International was formed, which controls the company's work in 70 countries, except for the US market, where it is responsible for the development and implementation of the company's global development strategy. It determines and evaluates competitive advantages and opportunities in the host country for the development of intellectual resources and technologies, development of partnerships and business.

3. Comparative characteristics of Airbus and Boeing production

The companies operate primarily in the narrow-body and wide-body short- and medium-haul aircraft segments.

Below is a comparative description of the production of certain aircraft models by year.

• ? B-737 and A320. Medium-capacity aircraft for medium-haul airlines, each type has many modifications. In recent years, the A320 has sold in larger volumes than Boeing products.

Table 5. Deliveries of AirbusA320 and Boeing 737 aircraft for 1988-2010

• B-747 and A380. Large capacity aircraft for medium and long haul airlines. Asian airlines, traditional users of the 747, are the main customers of the A380. Currently, B-747s are produced in quantities of no more than 10 units per year, new orders for passenger cars very few (of the 99 B-747s ordered since the beginning of 2006, only 27 are passenger). At the same time, the A380 order portfolio has increased by 60 passenger aircraft since the beginning of 2006.
• B-767 and A330. The Airbus aircraft has proved more commercially successful in recent years.

Table 6. Deliveries of Airbus A330 and Boeing 767 aircraft for 1994-2009.

• B-777 and A340. Both aircraft appeared at the same time, but due to the greater fuel efficiency of the B-777 and a number of other factors, the American company sold twice as many aircraft as their European competitors.

Table 7. Deliveries of Airbus A340 and Boeing 777 aircraft for 1993-2009

There are very few new orders for the A340. It is assumed that the A350 will compete with the B-777, but the development of the latter is still very far from completion.

Embraer (Empresa Brasileirade Aeronautica) is a Brazilian aircraft manufacturing company, one of the leaders in the global market of passenger regional aircraft. Headquarters in São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo.

Founded in 1969 as a state-controlled company. In the 1990s, it faced a serious crisis, after which it was completely privatized in 1994 (the state was left with only a “golden share”, which gave it veto power over the supply of military aircraft).

The company specializes in regional airliners and produces commercial, corporate, military, and agricultural aircraft. Production facilities are concentrated in Brazil.

By 2010, the company shared third or fourth place with Canada's Bombardier among the largest suppliers of commercial airliners, behind Boeing and Airbus. In 2009, the company delivered more than 240 aircraft to commercial customers.

The number of personnel is 17 thousand people (2005).

Embraer Jet - a family of twin-engine narrow-body medium-range passenger aircraft produced by the Brazilian company Embraer. Includes 4 modifications: E-170, E-175, E-190 and E-195. The E-Jet was first unveiled at the Le Bourget Air Show in 1999. Serial production began in 2002.

Table 8. Deliveries of Embraer E-jet 190, 195 aircraft in total for 2005-2010, pcs.

Bombardier Inc. (Bombardier), Canadian engineering company. The headquarters is located in Montreal, Quebec.

The company was founded in Valcourt (Quebec) in 1942 under the name L´Auto-NeigeBombardierLimitée by Joseph-Armand Bombardier. The company has been involved in aircraft manufacturing since the mid-1980s. In 2003, the company sold its Bombardier Recreational Products division, which produced snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles, jet skis, and motor boats, concentrating on railway and aircraft engineering.

The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of business aircraft, regional aircraft, as well as railway equipment and trams. The company's main divisions are the world's largest manufacturer of railway equipment, Bombardier Transportation, and Bombardier Aerospace, the world's third largest manufacturer of civil aircraft after Boeing and Airbus. In 2008, Bombardier employed 59.8 thousand people.

Bombardier Canadair RegionalJet (CRJ) is a family of regional passenger jet narrow-body aircraft. The aircraft made its first flight on May 10, 1991. The CRJ-100 became the first modern aircraft among 50-seater aircraft. In terms of speed, the aircraft can be compared with larger aircraft, while its efficiency is quite consistent with its class. The family consists of several modifications, differing in fuselage length and flight range: CRJ100, CRJ 200, CRJ 700, CRJ 900.

The CRJ 900 model is designed to carry 88 passengers. The Bombardier CRJ 900 made its first flight on February 21, 2001. In addition to the standard one, there are several other versions of the aircraft - extended and for long-distance flights.

The Bombardier CRJ 1000 program was launched by Bombardier Aerospace on February 19, 2007. First flown in September 2008, the 100-seat CRJ1000 is the latest addition to the Canadian Regional Jet family.

Table 9. Deliveries of Bombardier CRJ 900, 1000 aircraft for 2005-2010, pcs.

4. Growth forecasts for the global civil airliner market

According to Airbus forecasts, in the next 20 years, airlines around the world will buy almost 25 thousand new mainline aircraft for a total of 2.9 trillion. dollars. Of these, about 10 thousand will be needed to replace the aging fleet, and another 15 thousand will be needed to further increase transportation capacity. Moreover, narrow-body airliners will be in greatest demand. About 18 thousand of them will be sold for 1.27 trillion. dollars, which will amount to 70% of the total volume of all supplies in kind. As a result, by 2030 the global airline fleet will almost double and exceed 30 thousand aircraft. The high demand for new aircraft is driven by the growing need to replace aircraft with low fuel efficiency, as well as the dynamic development of new markets and the growth of passenger traffic on existing routes.

Boeing forecasts that the market for new commercial aircraft will be worth $3.6 trillion over the next 20 years. USD Market growth will be accompanied by the recovery of the global economy after the crisis and increased demand for new and more efficient aircraft. According to the current market overview 2011, by 2029 the market capacity will be 30,900 new passenger and cargo aircraft.

Table 10. Future market value (in 2009 prices) and aircraft deliveries by region by 2029.

The table shows that in the long term, the volume passenger transportation will increase by 5.3% per year under the influence of economic growth in regions with different structures of demand for aircraft. The fastest growing segment of the global market will continue to be narrow-body aircraft, thanks to the rapid increase in the number of low-cost airlines, the development of new markets such as India, China and Southeast Asia, and continued instability in fuel prices. The growth rate of the narrow-body aircraft segment has outpaced the wide-body segment over the past ten years. This gap will continue to widen as airlines phase out older generation aircraft.

The highest growth rates are observed in the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the undisputed leader.

Today, this region provides about 1/3 of the world's air transport. As a result of the growth of this market, by 2029, the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 43% of inbound, outbound and domestic traffic volumes. China alone will need 4,300 new airliners over the next 20 years.

Domestic airlines will also be the most active buyers of wide-body aircraft, generating about 40% of total demand.

Another dynamic market is the Middle East, which is experiencing some of the highest air traffic growth in recent years. Middle Eastern airlines have achieved rapid growth by taking advantage of their geographical location, the demographics of the region, the acquisition of modern aircraft and well-thought-out investment and business development plans. To the Middle East for the period 2011-2029. 2,340 aircraft will be delivered.

More detailed data on the distribution of airliner supplies different types The following table provides the main regions.

Table 11. Aircraft deliveries by region according to size for 2011-2029.

5. Increased competition and the end of duopoly

Now the total portfolio of firm orders from Airbus and Boeing for narrow-body aircraft is approaching 3 thousand units, which is only 16% of the forecast demand for these aircraft over a twenty-year period. Thus, the global market for long-haul aircraft has all the prerequisites for the emergence of at least one more major player, which, under certain circumstances, may well displace the giants of the world aircraft industry. The duopoly is slowly coming to an end. Of all the aircraft manufacturing companies in the world, the Canadians were the first to challenge the Big Two - Airbus and Boeing. Five years ago, Bombardier decided to begin developing the C-Series narrow-body aircraft, designed to carry 110–130 passengers. Initially, the implementation of this project was hampered by the intractability of aircraft engine manufacturers, who, according to some experts, under pressure from Airbus and Boeing, did not show a desire to create new engine modifications specifically for the new Bombardier aircraft. They motivated their decision by the narrowness of the sales market. But thanks to the efforts of the Canadian authorities and the position of Pratt & Whitney Canada, as well as the changed market situation, this problem was ultimately resolved. Having received financial support from the province of Quebec, Pratt & Whitney nevertheless developed a new family of Pure Power engines. These are exactly the units that Irkut will use on its MS-21. But unlike the MC-21 program, the C-Series project has already passed more than half of its journey. In the middle of last year, Bombardier presented working drawings of the SC100 test aircraft, and the final design of the left fuselage skin of the aircraft was shown at the Saint-Laurent plant in Montreal. Now at this enterprise the installation of composite panels on the tail section of the airliner is already in full swing.

The new aircraft should take off in 2012, and the first deliveries of the aircraft to airlines are scheduled for 2013. But, despite all the advantages of the new airliners, Bombardier cannot yet boast of a large portfolio of orders for them: Canadians have only 90 firm contracts for the purchase of SC100 and the same number of options. The main customers of these aircraft are the Lufthansa Group, the Irish leasing company LCI and the American Republic Holdings. But Bombardier pins its main hopes on the Chinese market. The Canadian company predicts it will become the second largest market for commercial aviation within the next 20 years. To achieve this goal, the company decided to cooperate with Chinese aircraft manufacturing enterprises.

China has its own project to create a long-range narrow-body aircraft - the C919. And this project is nothing more than China's long-term plan to destroy the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing. The name of the model and its digital code have enormous symbolic meaning for the Chinese. The first number “9” can be interpreted as “the long time it takes to overcome a difficult route”, and “19” means that the first Chinese mainline aircraft will be able to carry 190 passengers. In addition to the basic version, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) began designing two more models - for 156 and 168 passengers.

Within a few months, COMAC expects to complete the overall technical design of the aircraft and select suppliers for all key systems. This process has been actively going on for the last year and a half.

COMAC plans for the first flight of the C919 to take place in 2014, and commercial operation of the airliner will begin in 2016. In total, the Chinese intend to produce 2,500 new aircraft within 20 years. True, COMAC does not yet have paid firm orders for the C919. But there is no doubt that they will appear in the near future.

The expansion of three new long-haul aircraft manufacturers into the market at once forced Airbus and Boeing to begin full-scale preparations to repel the attack. Airbus has decided to launch a re-engine program for the A320 family of airliners, which, after being equipped with new engines, will be called NEO. The European concern intends to invest about 1 billion euros in this project. It is planned to install the same engines of the LEAP-X and PurePower family on the new aircraft. Moreover, Airbus is going to equip its modernized airliners with new wingtips, which will further reduce fuel consumption by 3-4%. Thus, the total fuel savings will be about 18%. The design of the A320 NEO airframe is 95% similar to the currently operating aircraft of this family. The European concern will only have to strengthen the wing and pylons. Remotorized aircraft will appear on the market in 2016 and will cost only $6 million more than their predecessors. In total, Airbus plans to sell about 4 thousand A320 NEO. And it is possible that this plan will be implemented sooner or later. In a month and a half of sales, Airbus has already acquired three major clients. The launch customer for the A320 NEO was Virgin America, which signed a contract for the purchase of 30 aircraft. And soon its example was followed by the Indian IndiGo and the Malaysian AirAsia, which entered into preliminary agreements to purchase more than 200 new aircraft. This caused EADS (Airbus parent company) shares to rise 5% on the day. The company's management is confident that the residual value of the existing A320 models will not suffer much, but the newly formed competitors of the European concern will have a hard time.

Boeing considered the launch of the NEO project a belated response to its Next Generation family of aircraft, which have been in production for more than ten years. At the same time, Boeing intends to create a new family of aircraft to replace them in the near future. existing versions Boeing 737 NG. The company understands Airbus' expectations from the release of the new NEO model, but does not see the need for such aircraft; the company's strategy, in accordance with the expectations of its customers, is aimed at designing a new aircraft.

The Brazilian Embraer is also considering the possibility of creating a new mainline aircraft for 110–130 passengers. The company is waiting for Boeing to make a final decision on the release of its new airliner, and only then will it consider whether it should pursue a competing project.
***

The modern aviation industry is a global network structure that includes thousands of specialized suppliers of various components and manufacturing services located around the world, incl. and in Russia.

The current state of the aviation industry market is characterized by a stage of stabilization. It is characterized by an established mature market for the products of the relevant industry. This means that the aviation industry market is segmented:

• medium and long-range wide-body aircraft;
• medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft;
• regional jets;
• local planes.

An important feature of the state of the civil airliner market today is the continuous increase in the role of innovation to achieve success: changing situations in the external environment require a reconsideration of the role and place of innovation in the activities of companies. An analysis of the development trends of the world market in the 20th century revealed main feature: Market development involves a continuous increase in volatility, instability and unpredictability.

The basis of the development strategies of the world's leading civil aircraft manufacturers is the constant technological improvement of their products and the reduction of operating costs of the proposed aircraft models, including fuel consumption and repair and maintenance costs, as well as the development of deep and long-term relationships with airlines by providing them with comprehensive operational support , modernization and renewal of the aircraft fleet. At the present stage, the range of products manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, as well as Embraer and Bombardier, is largely similar when compared by characteristics such as size, flight range and cost of the aircraft.